Figure AI / Unitree morning-review evidence card — 2026-06-19

Date: 2026-06-19 Owner: Hugo / Genius Team Agent: Finance / Charlie AGT-002 Status: public-safe research artifact; morning-review / slide 11 evidence card Visibility: PUBLIC Primary use: robotics morning review, slide 11 Tesla / Figure / Unitree comparison, /robotics/companies evidence cards Related files:

• knowledge/robotics-research-harness.md
• knowledge/robotics-sharing-backlog.md
• knowledge/robotics-codex-handoff.md
• knowledge/robotics-figure-unitree-source-to-slide-claim-control-2026-06-17.md
• knowledge/robotics-figure-unitree-evidence-v1.md
• knowledge/robotics-public-claim-bank-v1.md

Public-safety: yes. No Hugo private portfolio data. No buy / sell / hold language. No external publishing action. Source discipline: 🟢 primary / 🟡 secondary / 🟠 estimate / 🔴 guess. Fresh URL check: on 2026-06-19, this session reached HTTP 200 for Figure BMW, Figure BotQ, Figure Catalyst, Unitree R1, G1, H2, H2 Plus, and G1-D official URLs. 🟠 local reachability check; source content still treated as 🟢 company primary where quoted.

0. One-line answer

截至 2026-06-19，Figure AI / Unitree 不应被包装成“谁赢”的横向排名，而应被包装成两条互补但未闭环的证据曲线：

• Figure AI：更强的是 named-customer deployment KPI + manufacturing-process KPI。BMW 产线 11 个月部署、10-hour weekday shifts、90,000+ parts loaded、1,250+ runtime hours、contributed to 30,000+ BMW X3 vehicles；BotQ 披露 350+ Figure 03 delivered、生产节拍从 1/day 到 1/hour、EOL first-pass yield >80%、battery-line first-pass yield 99.3%、9,000+ actuators。🟢 Figure official posts dated 2025-11-19 and 2026-04-29; reviewed through 2026-06-19.
• Unitree / 宇树：更强的是 cost-access curve + developer/data stack surface。官方页面列出 R1 AIR from US$4,900 / R1 from US$5,900、G1 from US$13.5K、H2 US$29,900；H2 Plus references NVIDIA Jetson T5000 / Isaac GR00T / Isaac TeleOp / Isaac Sim；G1-D describes data acquisition, labeling, asset management, model training and inference tools。🟢 Unitree official product pages; prior capture 2026-06-10; fresh URL reachability check 2026-06-19.
• 二者都还没有公开披露 S5 scaled-commercial-economics proof：contract value、repeat orders、customer-confirmed ROI/payback、long-duration uptime/intervention distribution、robot revenue、gross margin、support/warranty burden。🟢 reviewed public source set; 🟠 Charlie synthesis as of 2026-06-19.

Approved public sentence:

Figure is the stronger deployment-evidence curve; Unitree is the stronger cost-access curve. Both are useful, neither is yet full commercialization proof.

Do not say:

Figure 已经证明 humanoid 大规模商业化；Unitree 低价已经证明 humanoid 会普及。

1. Evidence card table

2. Signal vs noise

Signal

1. Named customer + quantified runtime/task output is real progress over demo-only evidence.

   • Figure BMW: 1,250+ runtime hours and 90,000+ parts over an 11-month deployment. 🟢 2025-11-19 official post.
   • Interpretation: S4 because it is measurable and falsifiable; not S5 because economics and repeatability remain undisclosed. 🟠

2. Manufacturing-process KPI is different from capacity intention.

   • Figure BotQ: 350+ delivered robots and 1/day to 1/hour cadence; >80% EOL FPY and 99.3% battery-line FPY. 🟢 2026-04-29 official post.
   • Interpretation: S4 because production process is being measured; not S5 because demand quality and margin are not disclosed. 🟠

3. Low public price changes the experimentation surface.

   • Unitree R1 AIR / R1 / G1 / H2 public price anchors span roughly US$4.9K to US$29.9K. 🟢 official product pages; prior capture 2026-06-10.
   • Interpretation: S3 because access cost falls; not S5 because reliable paid deployment and unit economics are unproven. 🟠

4. Developer/data tooling suggests the bottleneck is shifting from “can I get a body?” to “can I create useful, reliable embodied data loops?”

   • Unitree H2 Plus / G1-D references NVIDIA / Isaac / data acquisition / training / inference workflows. 🟢 official product pages.
   • Interpretation: S3/S4 platform-enablement signal; value capture may sit in compute, model, data, integration, deployment service, or customer productivity, not necessarily robot OEM hardware margin. 🟠

Noise unless upgraded

3. Morning-review slide compression

Suggested title:

Figure vs Unitree: deployment proof vs cost-curve proof

Suggested subtitle:

Two useful evidence curves; neither yet closes the S5 economics gap.

Three-card layout:

1. Figure — deployment KPI

   • BMW: 11 months; 10-hour weekday shifts; 90,000+ parts; 1,250+ runtime hours; 30,000+ X3 vehicles contributed. 🟢 2025-11-19.
   • BotQ: 350+ Figure 03 delivered; cadence 1/day -> 1/hour; >80% EOL FPY; 99.3% battery-line FPY; 9,000+ actuators. 🟢 2026-04-29.
   • Missing: robot count by customer, contract value, ROI/payback, uptime/intervention, repeat orders, revenue/margin. 🟢/🟠.

2. Unitree — cost-access curve

   • R1 AIR from US$4,900 / R1 from US$5,900; G1 from US$13.5K; H2 US$29,900. 🟢 official pages; prior capture 2026-06-10.
   • H2 Plus / G1-D expose NVIDIA / Isaac / data-model workflow surfaces. 🟢 official pages.
   • Missing: shipments by product line, industrial uptime, customer mix, gross margin, warranty/support burden, repeat orders. 🟢/🟠.

3. Correct framing

   • Figure answers: “Can humanoids do measurable work at a named customer site?” S4, not S5.
   • Unitree answers: “Can humanoid bodies become cheap and accessible enough to widen experimentation?” S3/S4, not S5.
   • The comparison is evidence-type, not winner ranking. 🟠 synthesis.

Required footer:

Evidence map only. No winner ranking. No trade recommendation. Deployment KPI and low price are not the same as scaled-commercial-economics proof.

4. S5 upgrade gates

Figure upgrades toward S5 only if public sources disclose at least 3 of the following together:

1. Customer-confirmed robot count, paid contract value, or revenue/backlog by deployment. 🟢 needed.
2. Repeat orders or multi-site expansion with the same KPI package. 🟢 needed.
3. ROI/payback or labor/productivity savings confirmed by customer, not only vendor. 🟢/🟡 needed.
4. Uptime, failure distribution, intervention rate, safety incidents, and service burden over months. 🟢/🟡 needed.
5. Link from BotQ output to customer accepted units, revenue, gross margin, and field reliability. 🟢 needed.

Unitree upgrades toward S5 only if public sources disclose at least 3 of the following together:

1. Humanoid shipment volume by product line and customer type. 🟢 needed.
2. Gross margin and warranty/support cost by product category, ideally filing-grade. 🟢 needed.
3. Industrial customer deployment KPI: uptime, intervention, task output, repeat orders. 🟢/🟡 needed.
4. Paid software/data/tooling revenue or developer ecosystem traction, not only hardware sales. 🟢/🟠 needed.
5. Product quality / reliability evidence across non-demo environments. 🟢/🟡 needed.

5. What would change the answer

Upgrade the comparison if:

• Figure adds a second or third named customer with BMW-like runtime/task KPI plus robot count, repeat order and ROI/payback. 🟢
• Catalyst discloses material deployment count/value or customer-confirmed productivity data. 🟢/🟡
• Unitree files or publishes shipment / revenue / margin / support-cost data that show low-cost humanoids can scale without destroying economics. 🟢
• Unitree or a third-party customer discloses industrial deployment KPI comparable to Figure’s BMW metrics. 🟢/🟡

Downgrade the comparison if:

• Figure’s BotQ output accumulates without customer utilization or accepted-unit economics. 🟠
• BMW remains a one-off showcase and Catalyst remains terms-undisclosed. 🟠
• Unitree’s low price expands demos but not reliable paid deployments. 🟠
• Support cost, warranty cost, field failure or low gross margin overwhelms low-price adoption. 🟢/🟡

6. Public-safe Codex / Warrior packaging guidance

Use this as a compact evidence card, not as final prose.

Best use:

• Slide 11: Tesla / Figure / Unitree comparison card.
• /robotics/companies: Figure and Unitree evidence cards.
• Morning review speaker notes: prevent overclaiming Figure BMW or Unitree price points.

Do not use this to:

• Rank Figure vs Unitree as winners.
• Recommend trades or imply private-company investment action.
• Publish Hugo portfolio context.
• Treat vendor claims as customer-confirmed economics.
• Treat low hardware price as proof of scaled commercialization.

7. Source list

Primary sources / primary-source-derived artifacts:

• Figure, “F.02 Contributed to the Production of 30,000 Cars at BMW,” 2025-11-19: https://www.figure.ai/news/production-at-bmw 🟢; fresh URL reachability HTTP 200 on 2026-06-19; metrics captured in robotics-figure-unitree-evidence-v1.md.
• Figure, “Ramping Figure 03 Production,” 2026-04-29: https://www.figure.ai/news/ramping-figure-03-production 🟢; fresh URL reachability HTTP 200 on 2026-06-19; metrics captured in prior artifacts.
• Figure, “Figure Signs Agreement with Catalyst Brands to Scale Humanoid Operations,” 2026-05-26: https://www.figure.ai/news/figure-signs-agreement-with-catalyst-brands 🟢 for announcement; 🟠 for economics because terms undisclosed; fresh URL reachability HTTP 200 on 2026-06-19.
• Unitree R1 product page: https://www.unitree.com/R1 🟢; fresh URL reachability HTTP 200 on 2026-06-19; prior capture 2026-06-10 for R1 AIR / R1 price anchors.
• Unitree G1 product page: https://www.unitree.com/g1/ 🟢; fresh URL reachability HTTP 200 on 2026-06-19; prior capture 2026-06-10 for G1 price / developer-platform anchor.
• Unitree H2 product page: https://www.unitree.com/H2 🟢; fresh URL reachability HTTP 200 on 2026-06-19; prior capture 2026-06-10 for H2 price anchor.
• Unitree H2 Plus product page: https://www.unitree.com/H2plus 🟢; fresh URL reachability HTTP 200 on 2026-06-19; prior capture 2026-06-10 for Jetson / Isaac / TeleOp / Sim workflow claims.
• Unitree G1-D product page: https://www.unitree.com/G1-D 🟢; fresh URL reachability HTTP 200 on 2026-06-19; prior capture 2026-06-10 for data acquisition / training / inference workflow.
• Charlie synthesis across existing public-safe artifacts, 2026-06-19. 🟠

8. Public-safe flag

Public-safe: yes, as an evidence map and claim-control sheet.

Exclude:

• Hugo private portfolio data, position weights, entry logic, watchlist sizing or private rationale.
• Buy / sell / hold language for public assets or private-company investment solicitations.
• Supplier rumors, private channel checks, paid-report excerpts, or unverified customer claims.
• Claims that Figure has proven scaled commercialization or Unitree has proven low-cost deployment economics.
• Claims that vendor-published autonomy demos are customer-confirmed uptime/intervention proof.