Leaderdrive / 绿的谐波 public-safe case-study evidence v3
Date: 2026-06-11 Owner: Hugo / Genius Team Research owner: Finance / Charlie AGT-002 Visibility: PUBLIC, if Hugo private portfolio information is excluded Status: slide/site evidence packet; no trade recommendation Source discipline: 🟢 primary / 🟡 secondary / 🟠 estimate / 🔴 guess
0. One-line answer
截至 2026-06-11，绿的谐波 / Leaderdrive 是中国 humanoid / 具身智能供应链里最强的 filing-backed reducer / actuator 样本之一：2025 年收入 RMB 570.714m、同比 +47.31%，归母净利润 RMB 124.367m、同比 +121.42%，谐波减速器销量 425,158 台、同比 +72.48%，并披露“工业及具身智能机器人零部件”收入 RMB 422.528m、毛利率 34.88%；但公开资料仍未披露具名 humanoid OEM、合同金额、订单 volume、humanoid-specific revenue、单机价值量或客户 ROI/payback，因此是 S4 filing-backed supply-chain signal，不是 S5 commercialization proof。🟢 绿的谐波 2025 annual report, disclosed 2026-04-23；🟠 revenue share 约 74.0% = 422.528 / 570.714。
1. Core question
绿的谐波到底是一个真实受益于具身智能 / humanoid build-out 的供应链公司，还是一个被市场过度外推的机器人概念股？
当前答案：两者都不是极端版本。报表证据已经比“概念股”强很多，但客户 / 订单 / humanoid-specific economics 仍不足以支持“已验证 humanoid winner”。
2. Current signal grade
| Evidence layer | Current evidence | Source grade | As-of date | Signal read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filing-backed revenue acceleration | 2025 revenue RMB 570.714m, +47.31%; net profit RMB 124.367m, +121.42% | 🟢 2025 annual report | 2026-04-23 disclosure | S4 |
| Embodied-intelligence revenue language | “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” revenue RMB 422.528m, +52.61%, GM 34.88% | 🟢 2025 annual report | 2026-04-23 disclosure | S4 |
| Q1 follow-through | 2026 Q1 revenue RMB 140.134m, +42.96%; net profit RMB 32.634m, +61.17%; company attributes growth partly to embodied-intelligence robot business scale growth | 🟢 2026 Q1 report | 2026-04-23 disclosure | S4 |
| Shipment / production | 2025 harmonic reducer production 433,655 units, +72.27%; sales 425,158 units, +72.48%; inventory 18,238 units, -6.34% | 🟢 2025 annual report | 2026-04-23 disclosure | S4 operating signal |
| Product architecture | Harmonic reducers, micro harmonic reducers, rotary actuators, frameless torque motors, planetary roller screws, linear actuators, planetary joint modules, DD motors | 🟢 2025 annual report / sustainability report | 2026-04-23 disclosure | S3/S4 architecture hedge |
| Humanoid customer validation | No reviewed public disclosure of named humanoid OEM customer, contract amount, order volume, humanoid revenue split, or humanoid-specific margin | 🟢 absence in reviewed filings; 🟠 synthesis | reviewed 2026-06-11 | S5 gap |
| Market hype / price signal | 2026-06-04 to 2026-06-08 share price +36.00% vs SSE Composite -3.05% and automation-equipment index +2.13%; company says no undisclosed major matter | 🟢 abnormal trading announcement | 2026-06-09 | Anti-hype caveat |
Current grade: S4 — filing-backed component revenue and production signal, but not S5 humanoid customer / economics validation.
3. What is actually proven
3.1 Revenue and volume proof is real
- 2025 revenue reached RMB 570.714m, +47.31% YoY; net profit reached RMB 124.367m, +121.42% YoY. 🟢 2025 annual report, disclosed 2026-04-23.
- 2025 “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” revenue reached RMB 422.528m, +52.61% YoY, with gross margin 34.88%. 🟢 2025 annual report, disclosed 2026-04-23.
- 2025 harmonic reducer production reached 433,655 units, +72.27% YoY; sales reached 425,158 units, +72.48% YoY; inventory declined to 18,238 units, -6.34% YoY. 🟢 2025 annual report, disclosed 2026-04-23.
- 2026 Q1 revenue reached RMB 140.134m, +42.96% YoY; net profit reached RMB 32.634m, +61.17% YoY. 🟢 2026 Q1 report, disclosed 2026-04-23.
Signal: this is stronger than a product-page story. It is filing-backed revenue, profit, and shipment evidence.
Noise to avoid: do not convert the mixed “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” line into pure humanoid revenue. The filing does not provide a humanoid-only split. 🟢/🟠 as of 2026-06-11.
3.2 Product fit is broader than just harmonic reducers
绿的谐波 is not only a single reducer story. Reviewed disclosures include:
| Product / module | Why it matters for humanoid / embodied robots | Source grade |
|---|---|---|
| Harmonic reducers / micro harmonic reducers | Compact, high reduction ratio, low backlash; micro harmonic reducers can fit small wrists / hands / terminal joints | 🟢 2025 annual report |
| Rotary actuators | Moves value capture from discrete reducer into integrated joint module | 🟢 2025 annual report |
| Frameless torque motors | Motor layer inside high-density actuator modules | 🟢 2025 annual report |
| Planetary roller screws / linear actuators | Potential route for high-load linear joints, legs, elbows, or other non-harmonic architectures | 🟢 2025 annual report / sustainability report |
| Planetary joint modules | Architecture hedge if OEMs choose planetary / integrated joints instead of discrete harmonic reducers | 🟢 2025 annual report |
| DD motors | Hedge against direct-drive / zero-backlash architectures that use no reducer | 🟢 2025 annual report |
Signal: product breadth gives Leaderdrive an architecture hedge. If humanoid value migrates from reducer to actuator / linear actuator / PRS, the company has public-disclosed product routes in several adjacent modules. 🟢/🟠 synthesis as of 2026-06-11.
Noise to avoid: “humanoid must use N harmonic reducers per robot” remains an estimate unless an OEM BOM, teardown, or official supplier disclosure validates it. 🟠/🔴 as of 2026-06-11.
4. What is not proven yet
| Missing evidence | Why it matters | Current status |
|---|---|---|
| Named humanoid OEM customer | Confirms real design win and reduces rumor risk | Not disclosed in reviewed public filings. 🟢 absence as of 2026-06-11 |
| Contract value / backlog / volume | Converts product fit into revenue visibility | Not disclosed. 🟢 |
| Humanoid-specific revenue split | Separates industrial robot recovery from humanoid demand | Not disclosed; current line mixes industrial + embodied-intelligence robot components. 🟢/🟠 |
| Humanoid-specific margin | Determines whether volume creates value or only price pressure | Not disclosed. 🟢 |
| Single-robot value content | Needed for TAM-to-revenue conversion | Not disclosed by filings or OEMs reviewed. 🟠/🔴 |
| Repeat order / customer payback | Needed to prove deployment economics | Not disclosed. 🟢/🟠 |
The central public-safe conclusion: Leaderdrive is a stronger supply-chain validation case than most concept names, but the evidence still stops before customer economics.
5. Margin and quality watch
Positive evidence:
- 2025 profit growth (+121.42%) exceeded revenue growth (+47.31%), showing operating leverage in that year. 🟢 2025 annual report.
- 2025 operating cash flow was RMB 152.004m, about 26.6% of revenue. 🟢 2025 annual report; 🟠 ratio = 152.004 / 570.714.
- 2025 harmonic reducer sales grew +72.48% while inventory fell -6.34%, a cleaner signal than “production only”. 🟢 2025 annual report.
Risks:
- Overall gross margin moved from 41.14% in 2023 to 37.54% in 2024 to 36.91% in 2025. 🟢 2025 annual report.
- The “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” gross margin was 34.88% in 2025, below overall company gross margin. 🟢 2025 annual report.
- 2025 construction in progress rose to RMB 184.233m, +106.60%; 2026 Q1 construction in progress rose further to RMB 235.586m. This can support capacity but also creates depreciation / utilization risk. 🟢 2025 annual report; 🟢 2026 Q1 report.
- 2025 inventory was RMB 285.029m, about 49.9% of revenue; 2026 Q1 inventory rose to RMB 297.412m. 🟢 filings; 🟠 ratios / watch interpretation.
Margin conclusion: 2025–2026 Q1 operating data are positive, but margin durability is not yet proven. The next evidence should be segment GM stability, receivable / inventory quality, and whether new actuator / PRS / linear products scale at attractive margins.
6. Signal vs noise
Signal
| Signal | Why it matters | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 revenue +47.31% and net profit +121.42% | Operating acceleration is filing-backed | S4 🟢 |
| “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” RMB 422.528m, +52.61%, GM 34.88% | Directly ties company reporting to robot / embodied-intelligence component demand | S4 🟢 |
| Harmonic reducer sales 425,158 units, +72.48% | Unit volume signal, not just revenue price effect | S4 🟢 |
| 2026 Q1 revenue +42.96%, net profit +61.17% | Follow-through after 2025 | S4 🟢 |
| Product expansion into actuators / PRS / linear / planetary / DD | Architecture hedge if humanoid design shifts | S3/S4 🟢/🟠 |
Noise / insufficient evidence
| Noise | Why insufficient |
|---|---|
| “Leaderdrive must be Tesla / Figure / Unitree supplier” | No reviewed public primary confirmation. 🔴 |
| “Every humanoid uses a fixed number of harmonic reducers” | Architecture differs; no validated OEM BOM in reviewed sources. 🟠/🔴 |
| “Share price +36% proves new order” | 2026-06-09 announcement says no undisclosed major matter and warns about irrational speculation. 🟢 |
| “工业及具身智能机器人零部件 = humanoid revenue” | Filing line mixes industrial and embodied-intelligence robot components. 🟢/🟠 |
| “Product page = large order” | Product fit does not disclose revenue, customer, margin, or repeat order. 🟢/🟠 |
7. What would change our mind
Upgrade toward S5 if 2–3 of these appear in filings or official customer disclosures:
- Named leading humanoid OEM design win with supply scope, volume, or contract period. 🟢
- Humanoid-specific revenue / backlog / order amount disclosed separately from industrial robotics. 🟢
- Segment gross margin stays around 35% or improves while robot-related revenue continues to grow above 30% YoY. 🟢/🟠
- Integrated actuator / PRS / linear actuator revenue becomes material and is disclosed with attractive margin. 🟢
- OEM teardown or official BOM confirms Leaderdrive modules in production humanoid platforms. 🟢/🟡
Downgrade if:
- Customers remain anonymous through multiple reporting periods while stock narrative assumes large named OEMs. 🟢/🟠
- Revenue grows but gross margin continues to fall, implying ASP / competition / depreciation / OEM bargaining pressure dominates. 🟢
- Inventory and receivables rise faster than revenue, suggesting demand quality or ramp mismatch. 🟢/🟠
- OEMs vertically integrate actuators or shift to PRS / planetary / direct-drive routes where Leaderdrive does not capture meaningful value. 🟠
- Abnormal-trading announcements continue to say no major undisclosed matter while market narrative assumes new orders. 🟢
8. Common misconceptions
-
Misconception: “谐波减速器是 humanoid 唯一核心零件。” Correction: humanoid value may split across actuator modules, motors, encoders, drives, PRS, linear actuators, force/tactile sensors, AI software, and manufacturing yield. Leaderdrive itself is expanding beyond discrete harmonic reducers. 🟢/🟠 as of 2026-06-11.
-
Misconception: “2025 具身智能相关口径收入增长 = humanoid 客户已经验证。” Correction: the disclosed line is “工业及具身智能机器人零部件”; it does not provide humanoid-only customer, revenue, order, or margin split. 🟢 2025 annual report.
-
Misconception: “量增一定带来毛利率提升。” Correction: 2025 profit leverage was strong, but overall gross margin declined from 41.14% in 2023 to 36.91% in 2025, so volume can coexist with ASP, mix, depreciation, and competition pressure. 🟢 2025 annual report.
-
Misconception: “股价上涨就是订单信号。” Correction: after a 36.00% three-trading-day rise from 2026-06-04 to 2026-06-08, the company announced no undisclosed major matter and warned about irrational speculation. 🟢 2026-06-09 abnormal trading announcement.
9. Think Deeper questions
- If humanoid value migrates from discrete reducer to integrated actuator, does Leaderdrive capture more value per robot or lose share to OEM self-integration?
- Is 34.88% gross margin in “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” a sustainable base under humanoid ramp, or a temporary mix / cycle result?
- Which signal should carry the most weight for S5 upgrade: named customer, humanoid revenue split, repeat order, segment margin, or validated BOM?
- If low-cost OEMs compress humanoid robot ASPs, do upstream reducer / actuator suppliers benefit from volume or suffer from price pressure?
10. Slide compression draft
Title: 绿的谐波：强报表信号，不等于已验证 humanoid winner
Three-box slide:
-
What is proven
- 2025 revenue RMB 570.714m, +47.31%; net profit RMB 124.367m, +121.42%. 🟢
- “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” RMB 422.528m, +52.61%, GM 34.88%. 🟢
- Harmonic reducer sales 425,158 units, +72.48%. 🟢
-
Why it matters
- Filing-backed revenue + volume signal is stronger than concept-stock language.
- Product stack covers reducer, actuator, PRS, linear actuator, planetary joint, DD motor. 🟢
- Current grade: S4 supply-chain validation.
-
What is still missing
- Named humanoid customer, contract value, order volume, humanoid revenue split, humanoid margin, single-robot value content, customer ROI. 🟢/🟠
- 2026-06-09 abnormal-trading announcement is an anti-hype caveat: +36.00% share price move did not come with disclosed major matter. 🟢
Footer caveat: This is a public-safe evidence map, not a trade recommendation. Designed for source-backed supply-chain analysis only.
11. Public site draft section
Leaderdrive / 绿的谐波: when a supply-chain signal is real but incomplete
Leaderdrive is one of the cleaner public examples of why robotics supply-chain analysis needs both optimism and discipline. The positive case is filing-backed: 2025 revenue grew 47.31%, net profit grew 121.42%, harmonic reducer sales grew 72.48%, and the company disclosed RMB 422.528m of “industrial and embodied-intelligence robot component” revenue. This is not just a viral demo or a concept-stock label.
The caveat is the part that matters for investors: the public filings still do not disclose a named humanoid OEM customer, contract amount, order volume, humanoid-specific revenue, humanoid-specific gross margin, or single-robot value content. The right conclusion is therefore not “winner proven,” but “S4 supply-chain signal with S5 evidence still missing.”
The anti-hype evidence is also useful: after a 36.00% three-trading-day share-price move in June 2026, the company announced that there was no undisclosed major matter. That makes Leaderdrive a good teaching case for the robotics field guide: operating evidence matters, but price action is not order evidence.
12. Source list
Primary sources 🟢
- 绿的谐波 2025 annual report, disclosed 2026-04-23: https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-04-23/688017_20260423_EU45.pdf Key claims used: 2025 revenue RMB 570.714m; net profit RMB 124.367m; operating cash flow RMB 152.004m; “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” revenue RMB 422.528m and GM 34.88%; harmonic reducer production / sales / inventory; product lines; customer concentration; gross margin trend.
- 绿的谐波 2026 Q1 report, disclosed 2026-04-23: https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-04-23/688017_20260423_TB4A.pdf Key claims used: Q1 revenue RMB 140.134m; net profit RMB 32.634m; embodied-intelligence business scale-growth language; inventory / construction-in-progress updates.
- 绿的谐波 2025 sustainability report, disclosed 2026-04-23: https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-04-23/688017_20260423_42KB.pdf Key claims used: humanoid-oriented rotary joints, planetary roller screws, linear electric cylinders, product development language.
- 绿的谐波 2026-06-09 abnormal trading announcement: https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-06-09/688017_20260609_MZU2.pdf Key claims used: 2026-06-04 to 2026-06-08 share price +36.00%; SSE Composite -3.05%; automation-equipment index +2.13%; no undisclosed major matter; irrational speculation risk.
- Leaderdrive official site / products: https://www.leaderdrive.com/ and https://www.leaderdrive.com/product/ Key claims used: official product positioning for strain wave gears and actuator-related product categories.
Internal cross-references 🟠
knowledge/robotics-leaderdrive-harmonic-reducer-deep-dive-v1.mdknowledge/robotics-supplier-verification-china-v1.mdknowledge/robotics-leaderdrive-public-case-v2.mdknowledge/robotics-humanoid-bom-supply-chain-v1.mdknowledge/robotics-supply-chain.md
13. Public-safety flag
Public-safe: yes, if published without Hugo private portfolio information. Do not frame 688017.SH as buy / sell / hold. Do not include private portfolio weights or private rationale. Do not imply unnamed customers are Tesla, Figure, Unitree, 智元, 宇树, or any other specific OEM. Do not treat the 36.00% share-price move as operating evidence. Do not treat estimated reducer counts, BOM values, or customer rumors as facts unless supported by primary or high-quality secondary sources.