Leaderdrive / 绿的谐波 public-safe slide 10 case-study brief

Date: 2026-06-16 Owner: Hugo / Genius Team Agent: Finance / Charlie AGT-002 Status: public-safe synthesis artifact for morning review Visibility: PUBLIC, if portfolio/private rationale excluded Primary use: slide 10 / /robotics/supply-chain case-study card Source discipline: 🟢 primary / 🟡 secondary / 🟠 estimate / 🔴 guess

Related files:

• knowledge/robotics-research-harness.md
• knowledge/robotics-sharing-backlog.md
• knowledge/robotics-supply-chain.md
• knowledge/robotics-sources.md
• knowledge/robotics-leaderdrive-public-case-v2.md
• knowledge/robotics-leaderdrive-s4-to-s5-evidence-debt-v1.md
• knowledge/robotics-leaderdrive-case-study-slide-evidence-v3.md

Public-safety boundary:

• Do not include Hugo private portfolio data, position size, entry logic, or private channel checks.
• Do not use buy / sell / hold language for 688017.SH.
• Do not infer Tesla / Figure / Unitree / AgiBot / UBTECH or any named humanoid OEM as customer unless a primary source discloses it.
• Do not treat short-term share-price movement as customer/order evidence.

0. One-line answer

截至 2026-06-16，绿的谐波 / Leaderdrive 是 humanoid / 具身智能供应链里最适合放进 public deck 的“强 S4、未到 S5”案例：2025 年报披露收入 RMB 570.714m（+47.31% YoY）、归母净利润 RMB 124.367m（+121.42% YoY）、谐波减速器销量 425,158 台（+72.48% YoY）、“工业及具身智能机器人零部件”收入 RMB 422.528m、毛利率 34.88%；2026 Q1 披露收入 RMB 140.134m（+42.96% YoY）、归母净利润 RMB 32.634m（+61.17% YoY）。这些是 filing-backed component signals，但 reviewed public sources 仍未披露具名 humanoid OEM、合同金额、订单 volume、humanoid-only revenue/margin、单机价值量或客户 ROI/payback。🟢 2025 annual report and 2026 Q1 report disclosed 2026-04-23; 🟠 Charlie S4/S5 classification as of 2026-06-16.

1. Why this is the right case study

Core question:

绿的谐波应该被呈现为“确定的 humanoid winner”，还是“报表信号真实、证据边界也真实的供应链样本”？

Current answer:

Use the second framing. The evidence is strong enough to teach supply-chain validation, but not strong enough to claim scaled humanoid commercialization.

Why it matters for the robotics deck:

1. It moves the discussion from TAM to filings: revenue, profit, unit sales, segment wording, gross margin and inventory / capacity questions. 🟢
2. It shows supplier evidence may arrive before OEM economics, but supplier evidence can still be incomplete. 🟠
3. It forces the audience to separate three things: component revenue, humanoid customer proof, and stock-market excitement. 🟢/🟠

2. Three-card slide draft

Suggested title:

绿的谐波：强报表信号，不等于已验证 humanoid winner

Card 1 — What is proven 🟢

• 2025 revenue RMB 570.714m, +47.31% YoY. 🟢 2025 annual report, disclosed 2026-04-23.
• 2025 attributable net profit RMB 124.367m, +121.42% YoY. 🟢 2025 annual report.
• 2025 harmonic reducer sales 425,158 units, +72.48% YoY; production 433,655 units, +72.27%; inventory 18,238 units, -6.34%. 🟢 2025 annual report.
• 2025 “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” revenue RMB 422.528m, +52.61% YoY, gross margin 34.88%. 🟢 2025 annual report.
• 2026 Q1 revenue RMB 140.134m, +42.96% YoY; attributable net profit RMB 32.634m, +61.17% YoY. 🟢 2026 Q1 report, disclosed 2026-04-23.

Slide compression:

“报表里已经有 revenue / profit / shipment / robot-component line，不只是概念叙事。”

Card 2 — Why it matters 🟢/🟠

• Filing-backed supplier acceleration is a stronger signal than product-page demos or unsourced customer rumors. 🟢/🟠
• The product surface is broader than discrete harmonic reducers: reviewed materials reference harmonic reducers, micro reducers, rotary actuators, frameless torque motors, planetary roller screws / linear transmission, planetary joint modules and DD motors. 🟢 annual report / sustainability report / official pages.
• This gives Leaderdrive an architecture hedge if humanoid value migrates from reducer-only BOM to integrated actuator / PRS / linear-actuator stack. 🟠 synthesis as of 2026-06-16.
• Current public grade: S4 supply-chain validation, not S5 scaled humanoid commercialization. 🟠 classification.

Slide compression:

“供应链可以先于 OEM economics 进入报表，但报表口径仍要拆开看。”

Card 3 — What is still missing before S5 🟢/🟠

• Named humanoid OEM customer. Not disclosed in reviewed public filings as of 2026-06-16. 🟢/🟠
• Contract amount, backlog duration, order volume or supply period. Not disclosed. 🟢/🟠
• Humanoid-only revenue split and humanoid-specific gross margin. Not disclosed; current line mixes industrial + embodied-intelligence robot components. 🟢/🟠
• Single-robot value content / validated BOM attach. Not disclosed by reviewed filings or OEM sources. 🟠/🔴 if asserted without method.
• Downstream repeat deployment, customer ROI/payback, service burden, warranty cost or low-intervention evidence tied to Leaderdrive modules. Not disclosed. 🟢/🟠
• Segment margin durability under scale: 2025 “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” GM was 34.88%, while company overall GM moved from 41.14% in 2023 to 37.54% in 2024 to 36.91% in 2025. 🟢 2025 annual report.

Slide compression:

“缺的不是故事，而是 customer / volume / margin / ROI proof。”

Required footer:

Evidence map only. No trade recommendation. No private portfolio data. Product fit ≠ customer proof; stock-price move ≠ order evidence.

3. Signal vs noise table

4. Anti-hype paragraph for speaker notes

The point of this case is not to say “supplier equals safer winner.” It is to show why supplier research needs the same evidence ladder as OEM research. Leaderdrive has real filing-backed evidence: revenue, profit, shipment volume, and robot-component reporting language. But the public data still stops before the most important S5 gates: named humanoid customer, order size, humanoid-only economics, BOM attach, and downstream ROI. If the deck uses this case, the conclusion should be: strong S4 supply-chain signal, still waiting for S5 customer/economics proof.

5. Public-safe site paragraph

Leaderdrive / 绿的谐波 is a useful robotics supply-chain case because it has both real evidence and real boundaries. The positive evidence is not a rumor: 2025 revenue grew 47.31%, net profit grew 121.42%, harmonic reducer sales grew 72.48%, and the company disclosed RMB 422.528m of “industrial and embodied-intelligence robot component” revenue. Q1 2026 continued the pattern, with revenue up 42.96% and net profit up 61.17%.

But this does not prove scaled humanoid commercialization. The reviewed public sources still do not disclose a named humanoid OEM customer, contract amount, order volume, humanoid-specific revenue, humanoid gross margin, or single-robot value content. The right public conclusion is therefore: Leaderdrive is a strong S4 supply-chain validation case, not an S5 humanoid winner proof.

The anti-hype evidence matters too. After the stock rose 36.00% from 2026-06-04 to 2026-06-08, the company said there was no undisclosed major matter and warned about irrational speculation. That makes the case useful for a field guide: operating evidence is signal; price action is not customer proof.

6. What would change our mind

Upgrade toward S5 if 2-3 of these appear in filings or official customer disclosures:

1. Named leading humanoid OEM design win with supply scope, volume, contract period or order amount. 🟢 needed.
2. Humanoid-specific revenue / backlog / order amount disclosed separately from industrial robotics. 🟢 needed.
3. Segment gross margin remains around the 2025 “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” baseline of 34.88% or improves while robot-related revenue grows >30% YoY. 🟢/🟠 threshold.
4. Integrated actuator / PRS / linear-actuator revenue becomes material and is disclosed with attractive margin. 🟢 needed.
5. OEM teardown or official BOM confirms Leaderdrive modules in production humanoid platforms. 🟢/🟡 needed.

Downgrade if:

1. Customers remain anonymous through multiple reporting periods while market narrative assumes named humanoid OEMs. 🟢/🟠
2. Revenue grows but gross margin continues to fall, implying ASP / competition / depreciation / OEM bargaining pressure dominates. 🟢
3. Inventory and receivables rise faster than revenue, suggesting demand-quality or ramp-mismatch risk. 🟢/🟠
4. OEMs vertically integrate actuators or shift to architectures where Leaderdrive does not capture meaningful value. 🟠
5. Future abnormal-trading announcements continue to say no major undisclosed matter while public narrative assumes new orders. 🟢

7. Common misconceptions

1. Misconception: “绿的谐波已经证明 humanoid 商业化。”

   • Correction: 它证明的是 S4 filing-backed component acceleration；customer/economics proof 仍缺。🟢/🟠

2. Misconception: “RMB 422.528m 就是 humanoid revenue。”

   • Correction: 披露口径是“工业及具身智能机器人零部件”，不是 humanoid-only revenue。🟢 2025 annual report.

3. Misconception: “股价上涨证明订单。”

   • Correction: 2026-06-09 abnormal-trading announcement says there was no undisclosed major matter after a +36.00% three-trading-day move. 🟢

4. Misconception: “谐波减速器是唯一价值池。”

   • Correction: humanoid value may split across reducers, integrated actuators, PRS / linear actuators, motors, sensors, batteries, compute, model/software and deployment services. 🟠

8. Think Deeper questions

1. If humanoid OEMs compress ASPs aggressively, does Leaderdrive benefit from volume or lose value through margin pressure?
2. Which S5 gate matters most for a supplier: named customer, humanoid-only revenue split, order backlog, segment margin, or validated BOM attach?
3. If integrated actuators replace discrete harmonic reducers in some joints, does Leaderdrive capture more value through product expansion or face OEM self-integration risk?
4. How should a public field guide display “strong operating evidence” while avoiding implied trade recommendation or customer rumor?

9. Source list

Primary sources 🟢:

• 绿的谐波 2025 annual report, disclosed 2026-04-23: https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-04-23/688017_20260423_EU45.pdf
  • Used for: 2025 revenue RMB 570.714m; attributable net profit RMB 124.367m; operating cash flow RMB 152.004m; “工业及具身智能机器人零部件” revenue RMB 422.528m and GM 34.88%; harmonic reducer production / sales / inventory; product lines; gross margin trend.
• 绿的谐波 2026 Q1 report, disclosed 2026-04-23: https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-04-23/688017_20260423_TB4A.pdf
  • Used for: Q1 revenue RMB 140.134m; attributable net profit RMB 32.634m; Q1 follow-through and company growth explanation.
• 绿的谐波 2025 sustainability report, disclosed 2026-04-23: https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-04-23/688017_20260423_42KB.pdf
  • Used for: humanoid-oriented rotary joints, planetary roller screws, linear electric cylinders, product development language.
• 绿的谐波 2026-06-09 abnormal trading announcement: https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/listedinfo/announcement/c/new/2026-06-09/688017_20260609_MZU2.pdf
  • Used for: 2026-06-04 to 2026-06-08 share price +36.00%; SSE Composite -3.05%; automation-equipment index +2.13%; no undisclosed major matter; irrational speculation risk.
• Leaderdrive official site / products: https://www.leaderdrive.com/ and https://www.leaderdrive.com/product/
  • Used for: official product positioning for strain wave gears and actuator-related categories.

Internal synthesis / cross-references 🟠:

• knowledge/robotics-leaderdrive-public-case-v2.md
• knowledge/robotics-leaderdrive-s4-to-s5-evidence-debt-v1.md
• knowledge/robotics-leaderdrive-case-study-slide-evidence-v3.md
• knowledge/robotics-supply-chain.md

10. Public-safety flag

Public-safe: yes, if used as an evidence map / case study only.

Exclude:

• Hugo private portfolio data, position weights, purchase prices, tax context, trade rationale, or private channel checks.
• Buy / sell / hold language.
• Named-customer claims not present in primary sources.
• Paid-report excerpts or private research-channel information.
• Any implication that S4 filing-backed supplier validation equals S5 scaled humanoid commercialization proof.