Robotics Morning Review Artifact — Tesla / Figure / Unitree evidence split

Date: 2026-06-16 Owner: Hugo / Genius Team Research owner: Finance / Charlie AGT-002 Status: SYNTHESIS_CANDIDATE Visibility: PUBLIC Output target: morning review / slide 11 / /robotics/companies

Related files:

knowledge/robotics-research-harness.md
knowledge/robotics-tesla-figure-unitree-public-evidence-ledger-v1.md
knowledge/robotics-oem-evidence-trap-card-tesla-figure-unitree-2026-06-16.md
knowledge/robotics-figure-unitree-warrior-brief-v1.md
knowledge/robotics-tesla-optimus-public-evidence-card-2026-06-16.md

Public-safety flag: PUBLIC if used as written. No Hugo private portfolio data. No trade recommendation. No supplier-customer rumor.

0. One-line answer

截至 2026-06-16，Tesla / Figure / Unitree 不应被包装成“谁赢”的单一排行榜，而应被包装成三条不同证据曲线：Tesla = capacity intent，Figure = deployment + manufacturing KPI，Unitree = cost-access + developer-platform。三者都已从 demo-only 叙事进入 S3/S4 证据跟踪，但都还没有公开证明 S5 scaled commercial economics。🟢/🟠

核心句：

Three evidence curves, not one horse race. Capacity is not production; deployment KPI is not economics; low price is not reliability or margin.

1. Why this artifact exists

现有材料已经足够厚；本文件的增量是给早晨 review 和 Codex 一个可直接压成一页的高密度证据卡。

需要避免三类误读：

把 Tesla 的 designed capacity 写成当前产量。🟠
把 Figure 的 BMW / BotQ KPI 写成客户 ROI、公司毛利或 repeat order 已验证。🟠
把 Unitree 的低价写成可靠性、出货规模、毛利率或客户 payback 已验证。🟠

2. Evidence split table

Company	Evidence curve	Strongest public anchor	What it supports	What it does not support	Signal grade
Tesla Optimus	Capacity intent / manufacturing infrastructure	Q1 2026 Tesla 8-K Exhibit 99.1 disclosed Fremont first-generation Optimus line designed for 1M robots/year and Texas second-generation line with long-term designed annual capacity of 10M robots; filed 2026-04-22. 🟢	Tesla treats Optimus as a manufacturing-scale program rather than only a demo/lab effort. 🟢/🟠	Current production rate, accepted units, yield, utilization, factory ROI/payback, external paid customers, robot revenue, gross margin, named suppliers. 🔴 unsupported by reviewed filings	S4 infrastructure signal
Figure AI	Deployment KPI + manufacturing KPI	BMW: 11-month deployment, 10-hour shifts Monday-Friday, 90,000+ parts loaded, 1,250+ runtime hours, contribution to 30,000+ BMW X3 vehicles. BotQ: 350+ Figure 03 robots delivered, 1/day to 1/hour cadence, >80% EOL FPY, 99.3% battery-line FPY, 9,000+ actuators. Figure official posts dated 2025-11-19 and 2026-04-29. 🟢	Figure has unusually concrete public evidence that humanoids can perform measured work in bounded industrial settings and that Figure is building manufacturing-process capability. 🟢/🟠	Contract value, robot count by customer, customer-confirmed ROI/payback, repeat order, uptime/intervention distribution, robot revenue, gross margin, service/support burden. 🔴 not disclosed	S4 deployment / manufacturing signal
Unitree / 宇树	Cost-access / developer platform	Unitree official product pages captured in prior artifacts: R1 / R1 AIR around/from US$4,900, G1 from US$13.5K, H2 US$29,900; H2 Plus / G1-D pages reference NVIDIA Jetson / Isaac GR00T / TeleOp / Sim and data/model workflow. 🟢 as of 2026-06-10 capture	Unitree has the clearest public low-cost humanoid hardware access signal; lower hardware price can expand experimentation and developer adoption. 🟢/🟠	Industrial reliability, autonomy, shipment scale, repeat paid deployments, support cost, gross margin, customer ROI/payback, software/data value capture. 🔴 not shown by product pages alone	S3/S4 cost-access signal

3. Slide 11 draft

Title: Tesla / Figure / Unitree: three evidence curves, not one horse race

Subtitle: The sector is no longer demo-only, but public evidence still stops short of S5 economics.

Card 1 — Tesla: capacity intent

Proven: filing-backed Fremont 1M/year designed line and Texas 10M/year long-term designed annual capacity. 🟢 Tesla Q1 2026 Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-04-22.
Trap: designed capacity is not current production. 🟠
Missing S5: actual output, accepted units, yield, runtime, intervention, ROI/payback, external revenue, gross margin. 🔴 unsupported by reviewed filings.

Card 2 — Figure: deployment + manufacturing KPI

Proven: BMW 1,250+ runtime hours / 90,000+ parts / 30,000+ X3 vehicles; BotQ 350+ robots / 1 robot per hour cadence / >80% EOL FPY / 99.3% battery-line FPY. 🟢 Figure official posts dated 2025-11-19 and 2026-04-29.
Trap: deployment KPI is not full unit economics. 🟠
Missing S5: contract value, robot count by customer, ROI/payback, repeat order, intervention rate, revenue, gross margin, service burden. 🔴 not disclosed.

Card 3 — Unitree: cost-access platform

Proven: humanoid price anchors around US$4.9K–29.9K plus developer/model workflow references around H2 Plus and G1-D. 🟢 Unitree official product pages captured 2026-06-10.
Trap: low price is not reliability or margin. 🟠
Missing S5: shipments by model/customer, industrial uptime, repeat paid deployment, warranty/support cost, gross margin, customer ROI, software/data monetization. 🔴 not shown by reviewed pages.

Footer: Evidence map only. No winner ranking. No trade recommendation. Capacity ≠ production; deployment KPI ≠ economics; low price ≠ reliability/margin.

4. Signal vs noise

Signal

Tesla filing-backed site/capacity language: named site + quantified designed capacity + dated SEC filing. 🟢 as of 2026-04-22 filing.
Figure BMW deployment KPI: named customer + duration + shifts + runtime + task count + production contribution. 🟢 as of 2025-11-19 post.
Figure BotQ manufacturing KPI: delivered robots + cadence + yield + battery/actuator output. 🟢 as of 2026-04-29 post.
Unitree price/product/tooling pages: useful only for cost-access and developer-platform claims. 🟢 as of 2026-06-10 internal capture.
Cross-company evidence-type classification: useful packaging synthesis, not a primary fact source. 🟠 Charlie synthesis, 2026-06-16.

Noise unless upgraded

Viral demo video without runtime, reset count, intervention data, task repeatability, customer site, or safety context. 🔴
Designed capacity treated as actual output or accepted units. 🟠
Customer logo/commercial agreement treated as ROI/payback without robot count, contract value, utilization and repeat-order evidence. 🟠
Low price treated as gross margin, reliability, autonomy or deployment proof. 🟠
Supplier rumor attached to Tesla / Figure / Unitree without named OEM confirmation, order value, revenue exposure or filing support. 🔴

5. What would change the classification

Tesla upgrades toward S5 if primary sources disclose:

Quarterly Optimus actual output, accepted units, or internally deployed units. 🟢
Production yield, line uptime, bottleneck and cost-curve data. 🟢
Factory task success, runtime, intervention rate and safety data. 🟢
Internal factory productivity gain, cost saving or ROI/payback. 🟢/🟡
External paid customer, price, contract value, repeat order, robot revenue or gross margin. 🟢

Figure upgrades toward S5 if official/customer-side sources disclose:

Customer-confirmed ROI/payback or productivity improvement. 🟢/🟡
Robot count by customer/site and paid deployment terms. 🟢
Repeat orders across BMW / Catalyst / additional named customers. 🟢
Uptime/intervention distribution over long-duration deployments. 🟢/🟡
Revenue, gross margin, service cost or fleet economics. 🟢/🟠

Unitree upgrades toward S5 if official/customer-side sources disclose:

Humanoid shipments by model and customer type. 🟢
Industrial/commercial deployment runtime, uptime and intervention data. 🟢/🟡
Repeat orders, contract value, channel sell-through or service revenue. 🟢/🟡
Product-line gross margin, support cost, warranty/service burden. 🟢/🟠
Evidence Unitree captures software/data/deployment value rather than only hardware ASP. 🟢/🟠

6. Common misconceptions

Misconception 1: Tesla has the largest capacity number, so Tesla already leads real deployment.

Correction: Tesla currently has stronger capacity-intent evidence; Figure has stronger public customer-site KPI. Those are different proof types. 🟢/🟠

Misconception 2: Figure's BMW metrics mean humanoid commercialization is solved.

Correction: Figure's BMW metrics are strong S4 evidence because they include duration, runtime, task count and production context. They still do not disclose robot count, contract value, ROI/payback, repeat order, intervention rate or margin. 🟢/🟠

Misconception 3: Unitree's low price means Unitree will capture most value.

Correction: low price lowers experimentation cost and may pressure the industry cost curve; it does not prove industrial reliability, autonomy, support cost, gross margin or value capture. 🟠

Misconception 4: Tesla / Figure / Unitree should be put on one winner leaderboard.

Correction: a leaderboard hides the useful signal. The investable question is which bottleneck is becoming measurable: capacity, deployment, cost, autonomy, economics or supply-chain revenue. 🟠

7. Think Deeper questions

Which single evidence release would change the sector first: Tesla output/yield, Figure customer-verified repeat ROI, or Unitree verified shipment scale?
If Unitree compresses hardware ASP before autonomy is solved, does value migrate to model/data platforms, integrators, services, or customers?
If Tesla keeps Optimus internal for years, should factory productivity/payback be treated as a substitute for robot revenue?
If Figure remains private but shows the clearest deployment KPI, which public-market proxies actually capture that signal without overfitting supplier rumors?

8. Source list

Tesla:

Tesla Q1 2026 Update, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-04-22: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026026551/exhibit991.htm 🟢
Tesla Q4 2025 Update, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, filed 2026-01-28: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003837/exhibit991.htm 🟢
Internal synthesis: knowledge/robotics-tesla-optimus-public-evidence-card-2026-06-16.md and knowledge/robotics-tesla-figure-unitree-public-evidence-ledger-v1.md. 🟠

Figure:

Figure, “F.02 Contributed to the Production of 30,000 Cars at BMW”, 2025-11-19: https://www.figure.ai/news/production-at-bmw 🟢
Figure, “Ramping Figure 03 Production”, 2026-04-29: https://www.figure.ai/news/ramping-figure-03-production 🟢
Figure, “Figure Signs Agreement with Catalyst Brands to Scale Humanoid Operations”, 2026-05-26: https://www.figure.ai/news/figure-signs-agreement-with-catalyst-brands 🟢 for announcement / 🟠 for economics undisclosed
Internal synthesis: knowledge/robotics-figure-unitree-evidence-v1.md and knowledge/robotics-figure-unitree-warrior-brief-v1.md. 🟠

Unitree:

Unitree R1 product page, captured in prior artifacts 2026-06-10: https://www.unitree.com/R1 🟢
Unitree G1 product page, captured in prior artifacts 2026-06-10: https://www.unitree.com/g1/ 🟢
Unitree H2 product page, captured in prior artifacts 2026-06-10: https://www.unitree.com/H2 🟢
Unitree H2 Plus product page, captured in prior artifacts 2026-06-10: https://www.unitree.com/H2plus 🟢
Unitree G1-D product page, captured in prior artifacts 2026-06-10: https://www.unitree.com/G1-D 🟢
Internal synthesis: knowledge/robotics-unitree-deep-dive-v1.md and knowledge/robotics-unitree-ipo-primary-source-evidence-debt-tracker-v1.md. 🟠

9. Packaging guardrails for Codex

Codex should preserve:

“Three evidence curves, not one horse race.”
“Capacity ≠ production; deployment KPI ≠ economics; low price ≠ reliability/margin.”
Tesla = capacity intent; Figure = deployment/manufacturing KPI; Unitree = cost-access / developer-platform.
S4/S3-S4 classification; do not upgrade any to S5.

Codex must exclude:

Hugo private portfolio information.
Trade recommendation or buy/sell/hold wording.
Supplier rumors or named supplier inference.
Claims that 1M/year or 10M/year is actual Tesla Optimus production.
Claims that Figure has proven scaled humanoid economics.
Claims that Unitree low price proves reliability, shipment scale, gross margin or customer ROI.